Live election dashboard
Current election position
Ballots already cast
Current result
This calculation uses only current votes. It does not include the remaining electorate.
Current allocation
Seats now
Decision boundaries
Path to one seat
The minimum winning total is the lowest final vote count that gives a list at least one seat in any simulated remaining-voter allocation. Statuses use every possible allocation, including further list votes, white ballots, and abstentions.
Opponent sensitivity
Seat viability map
Cannot win Can win in some allocations Wins in every allocation
All remaining-voter choices
Simulation results
Run the simulation to see all possible outcomes.
Outcome likelihood
| Outcome | Scenarios | Share |
|---|---|---|
| No simulation has run yet. | ||
List sensitivity
Vote-to-win curve
Choose a point on a list’s line. It asks: if that list had this many votes already, while every other current list vote and white ballot stayed unchanged, in what share of all possible remaining-voter choices would it win at least one seat? This is a share of simulated vote distributions, not a forecast of how people will vote.